Evidence base supports the judgement
The intelligence desk
African election calendar and intelligence
The desk files on the continent country by country, counts down to every vote it can date, and rates the evidence behind each judgement it publishes. This is that work as a reader can use it — sourced, dated and open to challenge.
52Countries coveredAfrican countries the archive holds a published briefing on.
227Briefings filedIntelligence briefings and research reports in the archive.
181Judgements ratedBriefings stating a key judgement, each with its confidence.
9Votes trackedElections on the desk's calendar ahead of polling day.
Coverage by country
Every country the archive holds a published briefing on, with the count it carries. Pick one to read where the desk has reported it.
Choose a country above to read its latest filings — the judgement, the confidence and the date the desk filed it.
The Election Calendar
Coverage by country- 15daysCape VerdePresidential electionPresidential election, first round; a second round is fixed for 29 November if no candidate wins outright.15 Nov 2026
- 35daysThe GambiaPresidential electionPresidential election; the Independent Electoral Commission has fixed the polling day.5 Dec 2026
- 52daysSouth SudanGeneral electionPresidential and legislative elections under the peace agreement; postponed repeatedly and still contested.22 Dec 2026Expected
- 77daysNigeriaGeneral electionPresidential and National Assembly elections; INEC's revised timetable puts the governorship and state assembly polls on 6 February 2027.16 Jan 2027
- 283daysKenyaGeneral electionPresident, National Assembly, Senate and the 47 county governments.10 Aug 2027
- 304daysAngolaGeneral electionNational Assembly election due by August 2027; the electoral commission has not yet set the polling day.31 Aug 2027Expected
- 365daysLesothoNational Assembly electionNational Assembly election due by October 2027 on the five-year cycle; polling day not yet fixed.31 Oct 2027Expected
- 712daysSierra LeoneGeneral electionECSL has set 12 October 2028 as the latest date for the poll; the exact polling day is not yet fixed.12 Oct 2028Expected
The method
Every judgement carries its confidence.
A briefing states what the desk judges, how far the evidence supports it, and what would change that reading — so a conclusion can be tested against what happens next.
Judgement holds on partial evidence
A working reading, thinly evidenced
Confidential Engagement
Put the desk to work on your country.
The same evidence base, applied to your seat, your opponent and your calendar — under confidentiality.